Questions & Responses

1. Do 97% of scientists agree that recent climate change is almost entirely from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and that warming is dangerous?

Response: Evidence suggests that about half or slightly more of recent warming is from anthropogenic greenhouse gases (see Chapters 9 and 10). History shows conclusively that colder climates are dangerous and warmer climates are beneficial to agriculture and humankind (see Chapter 6). Of the seven major surveys and studies of scientists’ opinions on climate change, 97% or more believe humans contribute to recent climate change, none find that a consensus of scientists believe nearly all warming is from greenhouse gases (see Chapter 1). Only three surveys ask if greenhouse gases are responsible for 50% or more of warming, and only 46% to 66% of those surveyed agree. As MIT atmospheric scientist Richard Lindzen said, “The claim that 51% of the small warming over the past 60 years is due to man’s activities is completely consistent with there being no problem worth bothering about.” One of the seven surveys asked if warming is dangerous and only 33% of those surveyed agreed that warming would be mostly harmful, hardly a 97% consensus.

2. Are there any competent scientists who dispute the burning of fossil fuels is creating a climate crisis.

Response: Many prominent scientists dispute the narrative that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are creating a climate crisis. These include Nobel laureates and scientist from prestigious universities including Harvard, Princeton, MIT, Caltech, and other leading institutions (see Chapter 1).

3. Are more people dying each year from heatwaves as temperatures have been increasing? Are these deaths disproportionately killing people of color in Africa and Asia?

Response: There has been a modest increase in deaths from heat as temperatures have risen. However, the study that shows this statistic also found that nine times more people die from cold than heat each year and the decline in
deaths from cold is declining at a faster rate than the deaths from heat is increasing (see Chapter 2). Deaths from cold are disproportionality from Africa and Asia, so climate change has saved many lives, especially in Africa and Asia.
Since 1920, there has been a fifty-fold decline in climate related deaths (see Chapter 4).

4. Are recent temperatures unprecedented?

Response: Multiple paleoclimatology studies have shown that temperatures were 1-2ᵒC warmer than today 7,000 years ago (see Chapter 5). One research group drilled down 1,670 feet (one half kilometer) in the Greenland ice sheet and found the ground at that depth were exposed to sunlight 7,000 years ago. Paleoclimate reconstructions may be debated, but ice does not lie.

5. Are shorelines of island atolls disappearing under rising sea levels?

Response: Because coral grows faster in warmer water, most island atolls have seen their shorelines stable or growing in recent years (see Chapter 4). A study of 709 islands in the Pacific and Indian Ocean show that 88.6% of shorelines on these islands is either stable or growing. Only 11.4% saw shoreline decline and most of this is attributed to land use rather than sea level rise.

6. Are hurricanes and tornadoes more severe due to recent warming?

Response: The opposite is true. Since our first year of full global satellite coverage of hurricanes in 1990, tropical cyclones have been fewer in number and less severe as measured by the standard metrics of hurricane energy
(Accumulated Cyclone Energy) and destructive power (Power Dissipation Index) (see Chapter 3). Strong tornadoes have seen a statistically significant decline in numbers since the 1950s (see Chapter 3). No category EF5 tornado, the
strongest tornado category, has been reported for over 12 years, the longest absence since reliable tracking started in 1950. These trends are consistent with meteorological theory that holds that cooling leads to more severe weather and warming moderates storms (Chapter 3). Historical records and paleo reconstructions confirm more severe storms during cold periods and less severe storms during warm cycles.

7. Are droughts increasing?

Response: The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations recommends the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), as the accepted metric to gauge global droughts. Global SPI shows a statistically significant decline in
droughts over the past 70 years (see Chapter 3). History has repeatedly demonstrated that droughts are more severe in cold climates and less severe in warm climates (see Chapters 5 and 6). This is because warm air holds more moisture than cold air.

8. Are wildfires increasing?

Response: Total acreage burned from wildfires over the past 100 years shows a five-fold decline in the United States since the 1920s. The decrease in wildfires is also found in Canada, Australia, Turkey, Europe, and Siberia. NASA satellite fire detection data shows global areas burned dropped by 25% between 2003 to 2019 (see Chapter 3).

9. Heatwave metrics including the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) and the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) both report an increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves in recent decades. Doesn’t this confirm climate change?

Response: EHF and HWMI both focus on the growing trend in the number and duration of heat waves in regional areas, especially urban centers. As these measures often concentrate on urban areas they are heavily influenced by the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island effect is the added heat found in urban areas due to concrete and asphalt absorbing and radiating heat and additional heat sources such as air conditioning, heating systems, and transportation exhaust that are concentrated in urban areas. Furthermore, they do not cover the Dust Bowl years that occurred during the last warm period of the 80-year natural Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Climate change is long term and should cover large areas of land, so neither the EFH nor HWMI are good metrics for climate change (see Chapter 3).

The U.S. EPA uses the Heat Wave Indes (HWI) to track long-term trends in heat waves across large areas of the United States going back to 1895. Because it measures historical temperature norms over larger regions, it is less influenced by urban warming trends. Its long-term focus and lower impact from the urban heat island effect makes the HWI a more stable metric for tracking heat wave trends relating to the impacts of climate change. The entire HWI record going back to 1895 shows heat waves during the 1930s were three to four times more severe than in recent years (see Chapter 3). Heat wave analysis without a record going back to the 1930s and 1940s does not tell the entire story. Nevertheless, the United Nations’ IPCC cites the EHF and HWMI and ignores the HWI to perpetuate a climate crisis narrative.

10. Isn’t the Earth browning and agriculture collapsing due to climate change?

Response: Measuring total leaf area of the Earth, NASA satellites have confirmed that the world greened by more than 20% in 35 years (see Chapter 4). This is a land area equal to more than twice the size of the United States.
Furthermore, the greening observed by satellites accelerated between 2001 and 2020. Most of this greening (78%) is associated with carbon dioxide fertilization and warming (see Chapter 6) . Not surprisingly, agricultural productivity has increased in synch with the greening world (see Chapter 4).

11. Is climate change causing polar bears and other species to go extinct?

Response: A recent study analyzed rates and patterns of extinctions over the past 500 years including almost 2 million species. They found extinctions in plants, arthropods, and land vertebrates peaked about 100 years ago and have since declined. The researchers found that in the last 200 years, there was no evidence for increasing extinction from climate change (see Chapter 3). Another paper studied plant diversity from 302 mountain summits in Europe spanning 145 years of observations to assess biodiversity changes. They found a continent- wide acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species richness, with five times as much species enrichment between 2007 and 2016 as fifty years ago, between 1957 and 1966. This acceleration is strikingly synchronized with accelerated global warming (see Chapter 3). Studies show that polar bear populations globally have increased from 10,000 to 20,000 in the 1970s to 22,000 to 31,000 by 2015 (see Chapter 3).

12. Isn’t sea level rise accelerating in recent years.

13. Are there tipping points such as melting polar ice and released methane from permafrost and ocean sediments that will lead to runaway catastrophic warming?

Response: Tipping points are not found in the historical record. During the Cambrian Era (~452 million to ~485 million years ago), atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were at 7,000 ppm as compared to 427 ppm today. Yet, although
temperatures were warmer in the Cambrian Era, the climate did not enter a runaway greenhouse state or any catastrophic instability (see Chapter 4). The IPCC and other scientific papers place the impact of melting polar ice of only 0.09ᵒC in warming for each 1ᵒC of heating, this is hardly detectable. Methane from melting permafrost and ocean sediments is even smaller at about 0.02ᵒC for each 1ᵒC of warming. Such warming is more than offset by the cooling impact of clouds and biologic aerosols which both increase with warmth (see Chapters 4, 10, and 13).

14. Is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) going to collapse due to melting Arctic ice that will dilute and weaken the thermohaline force and lead to dramatic cooling of the North Atlantic including Europe?

Response: Some scientists believe the cold in the North Atlantic during the Younger Dryas Period (10,900 BC - 9,700 BC) was caused by a collapse of the AMOC due to melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. This may be true, however, the Laurentide ice sheet was massive, covering North America to as far south as St. Louis, Missouri. There is no similarity of the Laurentide ice sheet melting and current conditions. Melt from the Laurentide ice sheet raised sea levels by 9-19 feet per century just before the Younger Dryas, which signifies the scale of the ice melt. Over the past century, sea level has risen by only about one half of a foot. The most current satellites measure sea level rise of only 3 mm per year, with less than 2 mm per year attributed to ice melt (see Chapter 3), which equates to less than 8 inches per century (200 mm).

The most dramatic rise in ice melt in recent times occurred between September 1980 to September 2012 (from ~7 million to ~3 million square kilometers sea ice extent). Yet a study shows stability of the Gulf Stream between 1965 to 2017 (see Chapter 4). Arctic ice has rebounded by 26% since 2012 and has been stable since (see Chapter 10). With the natural 80-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) cycle moving into a cold phase in 2030, Arctic ice is expected to grow with plunging Arctic temperatures (see Chapter 13). Since no instability was found in the Gulf Stream during the extreme melt between 1980 to 2012, it is improbable that the Gulf Stream and AMOC will weaken in the near future.

15. If we increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by five time, will we see the marginal temperature increase by five times?

Response: No, the power of carbon dioxide to warm declines logarithmically as concentrations increase (see Chapter 9). Plotting carbon dioxide concentrations vs. warming results in a logarithmic decay curve. To achieve a five-fold increase in marginal temperature requires a 32-fold increase in carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations (see Chapter 9). To achieve a 6-fold increase in marginal temperature requires a 64-fold increase in carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations. Because of this logarithmic decay curve, burning all known fossil fuel reserves would only result in 1ᵒC of marginal warming from the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide (see Chapter 9).

16. Since 1850, the Earth has warmed by 1.1ᵒC. The IPCC says that nearly all of this warming is from anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Why do you say nearly half of the warming is from natural variability?

Response: Effective Radiative Forcing of carbon dioxide can be calculated using the Myhre equation, MODTRAN software, or the lapse rate method. All three of these methods produce about 0.5ᵒC in warming to increase atmospheric carbon dioxide from 285 ppm in 1850 to 427 ppm today (see Chapter 9). Paleoclimatology reconstructions show that the temperature during the last grand solar maximum during the Medieval Warm Period was about 0.5ᵒC warmer than 1850 (see Chapter 10). We are currently in the Modern Solar Grand Maximum, which is the strongest solar maximum in 10,000 years, suggesting natural variation might be more than 0.5ᵒC since 1850. There is additional warming from other anthropogenic greenhouse gases and cooling from increased atmospheric aerosols, which cancel each other out. Therefore, about one half of the warming since 1850 is from carbon emissions and about one half is from natural variation. As climatologist Judith Curry has said, “… it’s roughly half natural, half human-caused…”

17. Will the burning of all known reserves of fossil fuels lead to catastrophic warming of the Earth?

Response: Using the accepted known fossil fuel reserves from the Energy Institute, if all known fossil fuel reserves were burned 3.9 gigatons of carbon dioxide would be emitted into the atmosphere. This would raise atmospheric
carbon dioxide by 503 ppm from 427 ppm today to 930 ppm. Using the ERF adjusted Myhre equation, MODRAN software, or the lapse rate method results in a marginal temperature increase of about 1ᵒC (see Chapter 9). Economic studies suggest that the net impact of warming is positive until the marginal temperature increases above 0.6ᵒC from today and that the impact of climate change does not significantly deviate from zero until 2.4ᵒC from today’s temperatures are exceeded (see Chapter 4). Therefore, the negative impact on the economy of burning all known fossil fuel reserves is minimal while the cost to slow carbon emissions to net zero is estimated to cost one trillion dollars per year.

18. If burning all known reserves of fossil fuels results in only 1ᵒC of warming, why does the IPCC say the temperature will increase by 2.1ᵒC by the year 2100?

Response: Effective Radiative Forcing of carbon dioxide can be calculated using the Myhre equation, MODTRAN software, or the lapse rate method. All three of these methods produce about 0.6ᵒC of warming from increasing carbon dioxide from 427 ppm today to 700 ppm by the year 2100 and by 0.9ᵒC if you include all other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. 2.1ᵒC is 2.2x greater than 0.9ᵒC. IPCC climate models assume climate feedbacks will amplify temperature. Warming temperatures increase cloudiness, water vapor in the atmosphere, and the melt of polar ice caps. The IPCC assumes increased water vapor, clouds, and polar ice melt will amplify temperature by 2.2-fold. This massive temperature amplification is not supported by scientific literature or measurements. The IPCC admits that the net feedback of clouds is cooling, but IPCC climate models ignore this cooling impact. The IPCC also says for each 3.4 W/m² of warming, water vapor and polar ice melt climate feedbacks total only 1.6 W/m² , which is less than
½ x amplification, not 2.2x. The net cooling impact of clouds is calculated and observed to be -1.7 W/m² for each 3.4 W/m² of warming, so it more than offsets the warming amplification of water vapor and melting polar ice climate feedbacks. Increased aerosols from warming further cool, resulting in a net cooling impact from all climate feedbacks. After 2030, we are expected to be in the cool periods of the natural AMO and PDO ocean oscillations and solar cycle 27, starting in 2031, is expected to be the lowest solar activity since the Maunder Solar Minimum in the seventeenth century.

19. Satellite measurements of the warming from the peak to trough of 11-year Schwab solar cycles is less than 0.1ᵒC. With such modest warming how can solar cycles be considered to have any meaningful impact on the climate?

Response: Paleoclimatology reconstructions of temperature and past solar cycles have shown that temperatures fluctuate by about 1ᵒC between the peak to trough of grand solar maximum and minimum (see Chapters 5, 7, and 10).
Temperature plunges of 0.2-0.4ᵒC are also seen during the Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder solar minimums. Such dips are seen in paleoclimate records, glacier records, tree lines, and the dates of Japanese cherry blossoms (see Chapters 5
and 6). One prominent astrophysicist has warned that it may not be accurate to extrapolate the impact of current 11-year Schwab Cycles to centennial solar cycles and several studies have shown solar irradiance that is about five times
larger during a grand solar maximum than found during current 11-year Schwab Solar Cycles (see Chapter 7). Other mechanisms provide further temperature impacts.

Cloud cover is known to be a powerful driver of temperature due to their ability to reflect solar radiation back out to space from their reflective white tops. Clouds require humidity and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to form. Experiments and observations have shown that CCN require ions to form (see Chapters 7 and 11). The largest source of ions in the atmosphere is from cosmic rays. Furthermore, the Sun’s magnetic field controls how much cosmic ray flux enters our solar system. During a strong solar cycle, the Sun’s magnetic field is strong, cosmic ray flux is reduced, and CCN and cloud cover is reduced, which increases temperature due to the low cloud cover. The opposite is true during a solar minimum (see Chapter 9).

Although solar radiation at the Earth’s surface varies by only 0.7% during a Schwab Solar Cycle, UV radiation in the stratosphere is known to vary by 4-6%. This additional UV irradiance warms the stratosphere that can lead to top-down warming and more important impact on the polar vortex (see Chapter 9). Polar regions have dry atmospheres and fewer clouds than other areas and therefore heat in polar regions easily passes out to space. Polar regions act like the radiator of a car. Heat is sent to the poles in atmospheric circulations and ocean currents where it is sent out to space. The polar vortex is a band of strong wind that prevents heat from entering the polar region. When the stratosphere is heated from a strong solar cycle, the polar vortex is strong and less heat can pass through the vortex to enter the polar region. The Earth then warms, just as a car overheats if there is a restriction of flow to the radiator. The opposite is true during a solar minimum, resulting in cooling from more heat passing out to space at the poles (see Chapters 7 and 13).

20. Antarctica ice cores show temperature and carbon dioxide levels go up and down together with 100,000-year cycles. Doesn’t this demonstrate that carbon dioxide is the driver of temperature?

Response: These hundred-year climate cycles are caused by the Milankovitch cycle of eccentricity. During each cycle, the temperature changes by about 11ᵒC and carbon dioxide changes by about 120 ppm. Calculations of Effective

Radiative Forcing show that the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide of 120 ppm changes marginal temperature by only 0.68ᵒC (see Chapter 8). Just as Coca-Cola goes flat when warmed and stays carbonated when refrigerated, so
the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide in cold temperatures and releases carbon dioxide in warm temperatures, consistent with Henry’s Law. Including the release of carbon dioxide from deep ocean stores, the oceans release about 10 ppm of carbon dioxide for each 1ᵒC of warming (see Chapter 8). Therefore, the warming of 11ᵒC explains all 120 ppm of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. Furthermore, several studies from respected scientists show that temperature leads and carbon dioxide concentrations follows about 200-800 years after the
temperature change (see Chapter 8).

21. Solar activity has been declining in recent years and cosmic ray flux has been increasing, yet temperatures have been increasing. Doesn’t this prove that solar activity does not drive temperature and cosmic ray flux does not cool temperatures by increasing cloud cover?

Response: Clouds significantly cool the Earth by reflecting solar energy off their white reflective tops. Clouds require Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) around which water vapor condenses. The most common CCN over oceans are sulphate CCN and these are formed when sulfur gases aggregate into 50 nm sulphate particles. Ions are required to neutralize electrical charge to allow these particles to form (see Chapters 7 and 11). Cosmic rays are the primary source of ions in the atmosphere, so they have a major impact on the formation of sulfate CCN and clouds. Experiments have shown that the most essential element in forming sulphate CCN is the precursor sulfate gases (see Chapter 7). If such precursor is not available, there is no material for ions to assist in CCN formation. Since 1979, sulfur emissions have dropped by 50% due to regulations and cloud formation declined by 6.5% between 1986 to 2018. Although there has been an increase in cosmic ray flux in recent years, because there is less sulfur precursor material, ions are not able to make much impact on cloud formation recently. With fewer clouds, the Sun’s energy strikes the Earth’s surface, resulting in warming that is consistent with a 6.5% decline in cloud cover (see Chapter 11)

22. Clouds have a greenhouse effect and IPCC models assume they have a net warming effect. Why do you insist net impact of clouds is cooling?

Response: Respected atmospheric scientists and the IPCC all agree that clouds have both a warming greenhouse effect, a cooling effect from reflecting solar heat back out to space, and the cooling effect is much larger than the warming effect (see Chapter 10). In 2021, the IPCC stated the net effect of clouds was cooling of -20 W/m² . More recent measurements using up-to-date satellite measurements show the warming effect is 26.3 W/m² , cooling is -51.1 W/m² , and net cooling is -24.8 W/m² (see Chapter 10). Ignoring the cooling of clouds is the reason physicist and Nobel laureate John Clauser said, “The popular narrative about climate change reflects a dangerous corruption of science.” (see Chapter 10).

23. Were climate cycles of the past such as the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age regional in Europe, yet climate change today is global warming?

Response: Since the Panama Gateway closed 3 million years ago from the tectonic land mass movement, the Gulf Stream ocean current has moved warm waters to the North Atlantic (See Chapter 13). Satellite measurements show that recent warming is more intense in the North Atlantic with the North Pole warming twice as fast as the equator and 25 times faster than the South Pole (see Chapter 13). The Kuroshio current in the Pacific Ocean also moves warm water into the North Pacific. Consequently, warming today and in past climate cycles has been more extreme in the Northern Hemisphere. Paleoclimate reconstructions and glacier records show that past climate cycles were global,
although more intense in the Northern Hemisphere (see Chapter 5), exactly as we are experiencing today.

24. How do cosmic rays impact climate?

Response: Clouds are one of the most powerful climate drivers since they reflect incoming solar energy back out to space from their white reflective tops. Clouds can look dark when viewed from below when most of the light has been reflected out to space (see Chapter 11). Cloud formation requires Cloud Condensation Nuclei, which are 50 nm hydrophilic (water attracting) aerosols that attract water and induce condensation of water vapor. Because oceans absorb about 90% of all solar energy received by the Earth from the Sun and sulfate aerosols are the dominant CCN over the oceans, sulfate CCN formation are a major climate driver.

Sulphate CCN are formed when sulfur gases in the atmosphere aggregate into aerosol particles. Experiments have shown that sulfur gases are 10 times more likely to form small aerosols when exposed to ions (see Chapters 7 and 11).
Perhaps more important, small sulfate aerosols generally do not aggregate into larger 50 nm particles because these aerosols repel each other due to their electrostatic charge. Ions neutralize the charge and allow them to aggregate
past a 10 nm threshold and further to 50 nm, which is large enough to become CCN. Galactic cosmic rays strip electrons off nitrogen and oxygen molecules and produce a cascade of millions of ions per square meter in the atmosphere. Cosmic rays are the major source of ions in the atmosphere, and they play a key role in forming CCN over the oceans, which impacts cloud cover and temperature.

25. Isn’t the burning of fossil fuels warming the oceans?

Response: The greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide can effectively only absorb and emit heat in the 13–17-micron infrared wavelength spectrum (see Chapter 9). This spectrum has a high absorption coefficient, so it is absorbed in the first 3 microns of the water’s surface (see Chapter 13). To put this into perspective, the diameter of a
human hair is 75 to 100 microns. Because the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide can only warm the top surface of the water, heat is lost to evaporation and radiation. On average, the oceans are nearly 4ᵒC warmer than the air at sea level (see Chapter 13). The second law of thermodynamics states that heat can only transfer from the warm object (oceans) to cold objects (atmosphere), therefore, on average, the atmosphere cannot warm the oceans.

Some have speculated that a warming atmosphere from the greenhouse effect slows the cooling of the oceans, which would result in a buildup of solar energy in the oceans. Nevertheless, measurements have not been able to confirm this hypothesis (see Chapter 13). The ocean transfers heat to the atmosphere from its surface. Measurements show that the surface of the ocean skin, down to a depth of about 1,000 microns, is almost always cooler than the ocean below its surface. This acts like a cold wet blanket. So long as you are covered by a cold wet blanket you
will continue to lose heat, but if the wet blanket is warmed relative to your body temperature, you will lose less heat. However, measurements show that the sea skin adjusts to the temperature of the water below the sea skin so that the temperature gradient of this “wet blanket” is preserved. Because the sea skin temperature gradient scales with changes in ocean temperature, it is ineffective at slowing the cooling of the ocean and therefore the impact of carbon dioxide emissions has only a small impact on ocean temperatures (see Chapter 13). In contrast, solar energy

penetrates several meters or more into the oceans and is the primary source of heating the oceans. Cloud cover, which acts like a parasol, preventing sun rays from ever reaching the oceans have a far greater impact on ocean warming than carbon dioxide emissions.

26. Is recent warming the only climate cycle over the past 150 years?

Response: Local climates are influenced by the temperature of ocean currents and their cycles. London is at the same latitude as Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, yet the average temperature in London is around 50ᵒF (10ᵒC) and Krasnoyarsk is 21ᵒF (-6ᵒC). The difference is that London receives warmth from the Gulf Stream ocean current. There is a naturally occurring 80-year Atlantic Ocean temperature cycle known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO was in a warm cycle in the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s and early 1940s. 23 of 50 states of the U.S. and six of the 13 providences and territories of Canada, Sweden, and Iceland set record high temperatures in the 1930s that have not yet been exceeded (see Chapter 13). There is a similar naturally occurring 60-year Pacific Ocean temperature cycle known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO was in a warm period in the late 1930s and early 1940s. Northwest China experienced its warmest temperature in the 1930s and 1940s and two of Australia’s eight states and territories set records in the late 1930s that have not been exceeded, including 122ᵒC (50.2ᵒC) in New South Wales (see Chapter 13).

The AMO entered a cold cycle between the mid-1940s through the 1970s and temperatures declined globally despite a five-fold increase in carbon dioxide emissions during that period (see Chapter 8). Both the AMO and PDO were in cold cycles during the 1970s. Three Time magazine covers and one Science News cover were devoted to the “Big Freeze” concern and the possibility of a coming ice age (see Chapter 13). Since about 1980, the AMO has been in a warm phase and temperatures have risen again. The AMO peaked around 2010 and this is when Arctic ice melt began to stabilize. We expect the AMO and PDO to be in cold cycles after 2030, which should result in cooler temperatures.